Gachagua Has Invited Trouble by Inviting Aladwa to the Ring

By a Media and Communications Expert

Rigathi Gachagua may have just made another serious political miscalculation by inviting Makadara MP George Aladwa to a political ring.

What makes this interesting is not simply that Gachagua has criticised Aladwa. It is where, how and to whom he made the remarks.

Gachagua reportedly hosted members of his community living in Makadara at his home in Wamunyoro. During the engagement, he spoke strongly against Hon George Aladwa and urged members of his community in Makadara not to vote for the sitting MP, instead encouraging support for his preferred candidate, who comes from his own community.

Why would a meeting involving members of one community be presented as though it represents the political voice of Makadara?

And why would Gachagua assume that members of his community in Nairobi will automatically vote according to his political preferences?

Interestingly, most of the people presented at his meeting as being from Makadara are not even residents of Makadara. This raises questions about whether the gathering was being used to create the perception of numbers and support.

Was Gachagua actually speaking to Makadara people, or to the “Makandara” section of his community that happens to live in Nairobi?

Unfortunately, Makadara Does Not Vote That Way

Anyone who understands Makadara politics knows that the constituency is highly cosmopolitan.

Residents come from virtually every part of Kenya. But when it comes to parliamentary elections, Makadara has historically demonstrated a strong preference for candidates who are perceived as “one of their own”—people who live there, understand the mtaa's, know the community networks and have established relationships with residents.

This is where Gachagua's strategy of promoting a preferred candidate based primarily on community identity is likely to encounter serious resistance.

There are better aspirants from his community who are actually electable—not his preferred choice, who does not know or understand Makadara, or perhaps “Makandara,” as he continues to call it.

Makadara voters do not wait for outsiders to tell them whom to elect.

They have their own political calculations.

They know their candidates.

They know their mtaa's.

They know who has walked with them, even beyond politics.

And they know who understands the problems of Eastlands.

Gachagua may therefore discover that telling a group of Kikuyu residents to vote for a particular Kikuyu candidate is not the same thing as convincing Makadara voters to elect that candidate.

The two things are politically very different.

Gachagua May Have Picked the Wrong Man to Fight

Gachagua has chosen to attack the wrong person.

George Aladwa is not a political novice.

He is a man who has spent years in Nairobi politics.

He has served two terms as an MCA, served as Deputy Mayor of Nairobi, became Mayor of Nairobi—the last person to hold that office—and is currently serving his second term as the MP for Makadara.

Gachagua's own political journey is considerably shorter at all levels.

Before becoming Deputy President, he served one term as an MP. He then became Deputy President, only to be impeached before even doing a quarter of his first term.

That comparison does not automatically make Aladwa a better politician.

But it demonstrates that Gachagua may have underestimated the political experience of the man he has just invited into the ring.

And Aladwa is unlikely to respond, and NOT quietly.

Aladwa May Have a Lot to Say

This is where the political story could become much bigger than the original remarks.

Aladwa has the political freedom, experience and personality to tell Gachagua things that many politicians might hesitate to say publicly.

He has been in Nairobi politics for too long to be intimidated by political confrontation.

If Gachagua has opened the door, Aladwa may decide to walk through it.

And when he does, Gachagua may be surprised by just how much Aladwa knows, how much he can say and how effectively he can frame the conversation.

The danger for Gachagua is that he may have thought he was attacking an MP.

He may instead have invited a seasoned Nairobi politician to put Gachagua himself on the political agenda in Makadara and Nairobi.

And just as Arama has promised in Nakuru, Aladwa could make sure Gachagua does not set foot in Makadara to campaign.

That is going to be a very different fight.

Watch this space.

The Bigger Political Irony

There is an even bigger political play surrounding this confrontation.

Aladwa is associated with the ODM political camp, which supports President William Ruto, while Gachagua is engaged in a political fight against Ruto.

Aladwa can support Ruto while simultaneously defending his political territory against a tribalist politician like Gachagua.

Gachagua appears to be attempting to influence Makadara by supporting a preferred candidate from his own community. But his main blunder is doing so while attacking Aladwa.

There is a reason Aladwa is called “King George,” including by the President.

Aladwa can position himself as a Nairobi politician supporting the President while resisting what he may portray as Gachagua's attempt to impose a tribal political agenda on Makadara.

That is a potentially powerful political narrative.

The Wamunyoro Meeting Raises Questions

There is also a communications problem in the optics of the Wamunyoro meeting.

If Gachagua meets members of his own community at his home and then uses that platform to speak about who should win in Makadara, the immediate question is: where are the wider Makadara residents in this conversation?

Makadara is not a Kikuyu constituency.

It is not a Luo constituency.

It is not a Luhya constituency.

It is not a Kamba constituency.

It is a cosmopolitan Nairobi constituency.

Any attempt to reduce its political choices to the preferences of one ethnic community risks alienating other voters whose support his candidate needs.

There is another danger.

A photograph showing people described as being from Makadara does not necessarily mean that those people represent Makadara.

Either Gachagua has been misled, or he has allowed himself to be misled, in an attempt to create the perception of numbers. The reality is that a majority of those he met are not known in Makadara, even from the photographs Gachagua himself posted online.

So, if most of those who attended the Wamunyoro meeting, purporting to be from Makadara, are not actually residents of Makadara, what was the intention of the meeting?

Was it simply a community meeting, or was it driven by concern about the Aladwa factor in Makadara and Nairobi?

Overall, Gachagua's Tribal Politics Is His Biggest Weakness

Gachagua's political messaging has often been associated with ethnic mobilisation.

Whether intended or not, this could become a serious problem for Gachagua. And people like Aladwa know how to deal with such political characters in the capital.

The city is perhaps the worst political environment in Kenya in which to assume that ethnicity alone will determine voting behaviour.

People in Nairobi, especially in mtaa's across Eastlands where Makadara is located, interact across ethnic lines every day.

They live together.

They work together.

They worship together.

They trade together.

They send their children to the same schools.

Constituencies such as Makadara make political decisions based on local identity and performance rather than instructions from politicians elsewhere or purely on tribal factors.

This is why Gachagua's attempt to fight Aladwa through members of his own community may ultimately strengthen Aladwa rather than weaken him.

Aladwa can simply ask Makadara voters a straightforward question:

Who understands Makadara better—the people who live here and have represented it, or a politician coming from outside the constituency to tell residents whom to elect?

That is a question Gachagua can not answer.

He May Have Invited Aladwa to the Wrong Ring

There is an old political lesson: never start a fight with someone without understanding what they know about you.

And don't invite Aladwa to what could symbolically be described as a pigs' fight. He will obviously know how to fight that battle.

Gachagua may have just violated that rule.

He has invited Aladwa to the ring.

But Aladwa knows Nairobi.

He knows Makadara.

He knows Eastlands.

He knows political networks.

He has been an MCA, Deputy Mayor, Mayor and MP.

He is now serving his second term in Parliament.

And unlike a political newcomer, he does not need to introduce himself to Makadara.

The constituency already knows him.

Gachagua and his favourite candidate, meanwhile, may still be trying to understand the political corners of a constituency they want to influence.

Even getting the name wrong—referring to Makadara as “Makandara”—has already provided his critics with ammunition.

The Coming Response Could Be Interesting

The biggest mistake Gachagua may have made is assuming that the story ends with his remarks.

It does not.

The story may actually begin when Aladwa responds.

And if Aladwa chooses to respond without holding back, Gachagua may discover that the man he thought he was simply attacking is capable of turning the entire conversation around.

Aladwa does not have to fight Gachagua on Gachagua's terms.

He can take the fight directly to the former Deputy President.

He can question his record.

He can challenge his political strategy.

He can challenge his understanding of Nairobi.

He can question the logic of attempting to mobilise Makadara through ethnicity.

Aladwa can remind Gachagua who he is—a “fala,” as some Eastlanders might refer to people they perceive as outsiders to their local political reality.

And he can do it while maintaining his strong support for President Ruto.

That last point makes the situation particularly uncomfortable for Gachagua.

Aladwa can effectively say: “I support Ruto, and I will not allow Gachagua to dictate Makadara and Nairobi politics based on ethnic mobilisation.”

That is a politically potent position.

The Real Ring Is Makadara

While this is not necessarily a Gachagua-versus-Aladwa contest, Gachagua has sadly made it so, judging by how Aladwa is likely to respond.

Aladwa is an MP defending his political constituency. Gachagua is an impeached former Deputy President who served only one term as an MP before becoming Deputy President and was then removed from office before completing a quarter of his first term, now attempting to influence the political direction of Makadara.

Aladwa may make him busy with Makadara and Nairobi.

Makadara voters have repeatedly demonstrated that they understand their constituency better than outsiders do.

They know their own.

They have their own networks.

And when election day comes, they—not a gathering in Wamunyoro—will decide who represents them.

Gachagua may therefore have thought he was warning Makadara about Aladwa.

He may instead have warned Aladwa that Gachagua is coming for his political space.

And Aladwa may now decide to respond in a language Gachagua understands very well.

The former Deputy President may soon discover that inviting Aladwa to the ring was easier than preparing for what Aladwa might say and do once he gets there.

Because this is not simply about who wins an argument.

It is about whether Gachagua understands the politician he has chosen to invite into the ring.

Aladwa is a master of political mobilisation, arguably operating at a different level from Arama when it comes to navigating Nairobi's political terrain.

And if Gachagua does not understand that, Makadara may be the place where he learns the hard way that Nairobi politics cannot be fought from Wamunyoro.

The writer is a Media and Communications Expert.