October Mathare Poll: Hon. Odalo Hits 41% as Consistent Growth Strengthens His Position as the Leading Contender

Hon. Odalo has registered a 41 per cent voter intention rating in the October Mathare opinion poll, with his consistent growth in support strengthening his position as the leading contender for the constituency seat.

The latest findings build on a trend observed over the past five months of research, during which Odalo has maintained first position in the rankings while recording growth in voter intention. His October rating provides the latest indication of his performance, pointing to a steady upward trajectory in voter support.

The October survey involved more than 3,000 voters from Mathare Constituency, who were polled through telephone interviews conducted between October 13 and 16. The findings provide a snapshot of voter intentions during the four-day research period and offer fresh insight into the Mbatani ward MCA current standing in Mathare as a constituency.

The consistency of this growth could present a challenge to his political opponents, who must now contend with an incumbent whose support continues to strengthen. For Odalo, the latest figures offer encouraging signs of progress as he seeks to consolidate his support base across Mathare.

The latest rating also provides a useful measure of how his standing has evolved over successive months. Rather than focusing on a single poll result, the five-month trend offers a broader perspective on his performance and suggests that his growing voter intention is an important factor in assessing the constituency's political landscape.

For his challengers, the findings underline the need to build stronger connections with voters and translate campaign activities into measurable improvements in their own ratings. As the contest progresses, their ability to gain ground against Hon Odalo's consistent growth will be an important indicator of how competitive the race could become.

While voter preferences can shift as campaigns intensify and the political environment evolves, the October findings highlight the importance of Odalo's sustained growth. His opponents will need to demonstrate comparable momentum and translate their political activities into measurable gains if they hope to narrow the gap.

At 41 per cent, Odalo's October rating reinforces his position as the leading contender, with the growth recorded over five months of research emerging as a key feature of his political standing in Mathare. The coming months will provide further insight into whether he can maintain this upward trajectory and continue strengthening his support among voters.

Methodology: More than 3,000 Mathare voters were interviewed by telephone between October 13 and 16, 2026. The findings reflect voter intentions during the survey period and are not a guarantee of the final election outcome.