Odalo leads in latest Mathare MP opinion poll

Latest opinion poll has placed Mabatini Member of the County Assembly (MCA) Wilfred Oluoch Odalo as the clear front runner in the race for the Mathare constituency parliamentary seat. Data is based on research conducted by Intouch Polls Limited between January 15th and January 17th, 2026 placed Odalo in the lead with a commanding 32 percent followed by the former Starehe MP Bishop Margaret Wanjiru and the current Mathare MP Anthony Oluoch who are jointly tied at 19 percent. Musician Kevin Kioko popularly known as Bahatitrails at 11 percent with former Mlango Kubwa MCA Patricia Mutheu following at a paltry 9 percent and UDA candidate in the 2022 elections Billian Ojiwa trailing at 4 percent. Widely known by his nickname Rafuok, Odalo is a prominent politician who serves as the chairman of the Nairobi City County Assembly Budget and Appropriations Committee as well as the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) in the Nairobi City County Assembly. He is recognized as a long-serving, influential figure in local Nairobi politics, having represented Mabatini since 2013. He is framing himself as a "fresh" alternative to the incumbent MP, Antony Oluoch. He is often described as a "son of the soil" who rose from humble beginnings in the Mathare slums to high-level political leadership with supporters emphasizing his background, noting he once lived in a 10x10 mabati (iron sheet) structure, which drives his focus on grassroots empowerment and understanding the struggles of his constituents. His key focus areas include youth and women empowerment. Odalo has been credited by supporters with securing employment for hundreds of youth in Mabatini through his connections and influence. He has been involved in local development projects, including road construction in Mathare and supports education through the distribution of bursaries and sponsorship of students. He is known for his strategic, well-planned, and well-funded campaigns, aiming to consolidate support across different wards in Mathare to unseat the current MP. He has been described as a "maestro" of local politics with a strong, loyal, and vocal base of support. Odalo is likely to contest against Current MP Oluoch which is likely to boost his chances to slightly over 50 percent if he wins the ODM primiaries. Apart form the incumbent Oluoch, the other formidable candidate Bishop Margaret Wanjiru is the current Chairperson of the Nairobi Rivers Commissio and founder and Apostolic Bishop of the Jesus Is Alive Ministries (JIAM), an international Christian organization with headquarters in Nairobi Kenya and with branches in various parts of Kenya, Africa, Australia, United Kingdom and the United States of America. She is a former Member of Parliament for Starehe Constituency in Nairobi County and an Assistant Minister for the Ministry of Housing. Oluoch is the Member of Parliament for Mathare Constituency, having served since 2017 representing the ODM party. He is known for focusing on education, such as constructing classrooms at Mathare Mixed Secondary School, and engaging in community support, including assisting victims of fire incidents.