Odalo Maintains Lead in Mathare MP Race as September Poll Puts Him at 39%
Nairobi, Kenya — September 14, 2026
Mabatini Ward MCA and Nairobi County Assembly Budget Committee Chairman Hon. Wildfred Odalo continues to lead the race for the Mathare parliamentary seat, with the latest opinion poll placing his support at 39 percent among sampled voters.
The September poll, conducted between September 10 and 13, 2026, sampled 3,000 voters across all wards in Mathare Constituency through telephone interviews.
The research is conducted regularly to gauge voter sentiment in select constituencies and covers a broad range of questions on political issues, leadership and voter preferences. The parliamentary preference question was, as always, part of a wider opinion research exercise rather than the sole focus of the survey.
Odalo's latest rating is consistent with the trend recorded in previous polls conducted in Mathare over the past several months, where he has continued to occupy the top position.
The latest figures place Odalo 14 percentage points ahead of his closest challenger, Mohammed Ali, popularly known as Moha, whose support has recorded a significant increase in the latest poll.
The incumbent Mathare MP, Hon. Anthony Oluoch, now occupies third position, with his support base continuing to decline. The latest findings suggest that some of his traditional supporters are shifting their preference towards Odalo and Moha.
Oluoch has continued to register a decline in support compared with previous polls, while Odalo has maintained his upward trajectory and Moha has recorded a notable surge.
Former Starehe MP Margaret Wanjiru commands 8 percent support among the sampled Mathare voters. Her rating comes despite her recent announcement that she intends to contest the Nairobi gubernatorial seat, a move that could further reshape the political dynamics in Mathare.
Moha Records Significant Rise
Moha has emerged as one of the biggest gainers in the latest poll, with his support rising to 16 percent.
The figure represents a significant increase from his previous rating and places him firmly in contention for the parliamentary seat.
His resurgence, coupled with the continued decline in Oluoch's support, is beginning to reshape the Mathare race, with the contest increasingly appearing to be developing into a three-horse race between Odalo, Moha and the incumbent MP, Anthony Oluoch.
Musician and former parliamentary aspirant Bahati follows with 5 percent, while former Mlango Kubwa MCA Mutheu commands 4 percent support.
The remaining respondents either preferred other candidates, were undecided or did not indicate a preferred candidate.
Odalo's Support Base Continues to Expand
Odalo's continued dominance in successive polls is likely to continue attracting attention as political realignments begin taking shape ahead of the next General Election.
His strong showing comes against the backdrop of his role as Mabatini Ward MCA and Chairman of the Nairobi County Assembly Budget Committee, positions that have enhanced his visibility within Mathare and across Nairobi County.
The September findings also suggest that Odalo's support is increasingly spreading across different wards in the constituency, although Mabatini ward remains his strongest support base.
This broader appeal could prove significant as the race develops, particularly if the trend continues and Odalo converts his strong early support into a constituency-wide political coalition.
With 3,000 voters sampled across all wards, the latest survey provides a broader snapshot of voter sentiment in Mathare at this stage of the political cycle.
As with any opinion poll, the findings represent voter sentiment at the time the survey was conducted and should not be interpreted as a prediction of the eventual election outcome.
The Mathare parliamentary race is expected to remain highly competitive, with the incumbent seeking to defend his seat, Moha rebuilding his support base and Odalo seeking to consolidate his growing popularity.
The latest figures point to an increasingly competitive three-way contest, with Odalo holding a clear advantage at 39 percent, followed by Moha at 16 percent and Oluoch in third.
For now, Odalo remains firmly at the top of the Mathare MP preference poll, maintaining a significant lead over his closest challengers as the political contest begins to gather momentum.