Odm Loyalty: Odalo, Alai, Oria, Ogeto Stand out As Nairobi By-election Exposed Deep Cracks in Odm Assembly Wing

The loss of the Kariobangi North Ward by-election triggered a serious internal review within Nairobi’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) chapter, exposing major cracks in loyalty and commitment within its County Assembly wing. While many MCAs stayed away from the campaign, a dedicated group stood out for their unwavering involvement on the ground. MCAs Wilfred Oluoch Odalo (Mabatini), Robert Alai (Kileleshwa), Jared Oria (Dandora IV), and Moses Nyangaresi Ogeto (Kilimani) were among those who camped consistently in Kariobangi North, reinforcing the ODM candidate’s efforts. The four have earned praise from ODM party loyalists in Nairobi for demonstrating the level of commitment expected from ODM elected leaders. In contrast, the absence of large number of ODM MCAs sparked concerns within the party. Insiders say the by-election once again exposed “a growing sense of entitlement” among some leaders, who would only show up when they stand to benefit. The Nairobi County Assembly Speaker, Hon Ken Ng'ondi, was notably absent throughout the Kariobangi North by-election campaign period, despite numerous requests for him to support the ODM candidate, all of which he reportedly declined. Information from the ground indicated that the Nairobi Speaker was instead backing an independent candidate, in collaboration with Embakasi East MP Babu Owino. This stance stood in sharp contrast to the overwhelming support he received from ODM MCAs and party loyalists during his own bid for the Speaker’s position, when he enjoyed near-unanimous backing from the party. South C Ward MCA Abbas Khalif was also a notable absentee during the Kariobangi North by-election, having declined to support the ODM candidate despite repeated requests. Information from the ground during the campaign indicated that he instead threw his weight behind the DCP candidate. Abbas is now said to be conflicted over whether to contest the Langata parliamentary seat on an ODM or DCP ticket. This has raised serious questions about how he expects to secure ODM’s support, having openly failed to back fellow ODM candidates in their electoral contests. For many within the party, ODM is a family, and his recent actions are increasingly being viewed as clear signs of an intention to walk away. At the same time, Nairobi politics is already shaping up ahead of the 2027 elections, with key figures positioning themselves strategically. Allies close to Hon. Simon Mbugua say he is seriously considering running on a DCP ticket. However, his strong working relationship with President William Ruto makes it a difficult decision to shift from Ruto’s UDA to former Deputy President Gachagua’s DCP. Former Senator Beatrice Kwamboka is expected to run for Woman Representative on an ODM ticket. Born in Dandora and first elected in Mt. View Ward, she boasts deep grassroots networks across both areas. Combined with her solid ODM base and support from the vibrant Kisii community in Nairobi, political observers say she will be a formidable contender. Many believe it will be difficult for Hon. Omanga—who is expected to rely heavily on the Kikuyu vote—to defeat her in a city where multi-ethnic coalitions determine outcomes. Millicent Omanga is set to contest the Nairobi Women Representative seat on a DCP ticket. One of her close allies, Makongeni Ward MCA aspirant Ken Macharia, has already positioned himself for a Nairobi party role, riding on Omanga’s growing influence within the party. Grapevine also indicates that she is contemplating a bid for the Dagoreti North MP seat on the same DCP ticket. However, political pundits argue that if Omanga is keen on contesting a parliamentary seat, she would be better suited to vie in Westlands Constituency, where she resides, noting that she has limited grassroots connections and understanding of Dagoreti North. Following the Kariobangi North loss, ODM’s Nairobi leadership is expected to conduct a wider internal assessment to identify leaders who are still aligned with the party’s vision and those drifting toward other political formations. The by-election might have ended, but its ripple effects are likely to shape Nairobi’s political realignments in the months ahead.