Sifuna Emerges as Top Opposition Presidential Choice as Ruto Maintains Lead in Opinion Poll

In the latest Politrack Research Team survey, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the leading opposition presidential aspirant .

President William Ruto, however, maintains a commanding lead in the overall presidential preference race.

The survey, conducted between September 15 and 25, 2026, places Ruto at 45.1 per cent, followed by Sifuna at 19.6 per cent.

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka comes third with 10.3 per cent, while 8.4 per cent of respondents are undecided. Fred Matiang’i records 7.2 per cent, followed by Rigathi Gachagua at 6.0 per cent.

The figures make Sifuna the highest-rated opposition aspirant in the poll, with his 19.6 per cent support nearly double Kalonzo’s 10.3 per cent.

Matiang’i and Gachagua trail at 7.2 per cent and 6.0 per cent respectively. Other candidates polled below one per cent, including Martha Karua and David Maraga at 0.8 per cent each, James Orengo at 0.4 per cent and Jimmy Wanjigi at 0.3 per cent.

Ruto’s 45.1 per cent places him 25.5 percentage points ahead of Sifuna in the poll.

The survey, however, also shows a significant bloc of voters yet to settle on a candidate, with 8.4 per cent undecided.

The Politrack survey targeted potential voters across the country. Data were collected using a text-based technology platform, through which sampled users were invited to participate and answer prompted questions at their convenience.

A total of 20,419 respondents participated in the survey. Politrack reported a 95 per cent confidence level and a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points.

The party numbers provide another notable feature of the survey. Ruto’s UDA leads party preference at 32.0 per cent, followed by the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) at 11.7 per cent and ODM at 10.6 per cent. Jubilee records 6.9 per cent, Wiper 5.6 per cent, Kenya Kwanza 3.5 per cent and Azimio 3.2 per cent.

With the 2027 election still ahead, the Politrack figures represent a snapshot of voter preference during the survey period rather than an election result or forecast.